Under the heading of “New Definitions of National Security”, StratDem this week quotes the US Director of National Intelligence. The Intelligence Community (IC) is coming to realize, as has the Pentagon, that environmental conditions globally are changing radically and traditional threats and threat estimates must take into account this ‘new reality’. Disruption is the future
Intelligence Director on climate change as “underlying meta-driver of unpredictable instability”
September 9, 2016
- In the coming decades, an underlying meta-driver of unpredictable instability will be, I believe, climate change. Major population centers will compete for ever-diminishing food and water resources and governments will have an increasingly difficult time controlling their territories. And so because of all of these factors, after ISIL’s gone, we can expect some other terrorist entity to arise and a cycle of extremism which will continue to control us for the foreseeable future. And by the way, our more traditional adversaries like Russia and China and Iran and North Korea will continue to challenge us.
- We’re not giving President Obama’s PDB, or any PDB product, to the candidates. (President’s Daily Brief )
StratDem: The larger issues driving instability, per the DNI Director, should be communicated to the candidates for US president…
What is the appropriate role of the security community?
Regarding the Director’s warning of “unpredictable instability”, how should the intelligence community broaden its mission and move to examine a range of currently “unpredictable” consequences? Granted, climate disruption is a “meta-driver”. Possible consequences of disruption must come within the scope of intelligence — with proposed responses and strategic planning.
In the event a candidate ‘disbelieves‘ the facts and science of climate change, or denies that climate change/disruption is a serious threat, a “meta-driver” of “unpredictable instability”, then appropriate discussion/debate should follow.
Question & Answer Session
U.S. Intel Chief: Climate Change Is Adding Fuel to the World’s Extremist Fires