The world is looking at Israel and an expanding war, a generational war, a religious war, an international war, a war with entangling alliances, a war that could drag the US into another war. Amid the realities of war, Israel’s Netanyahu releases a message to the Iranian people

 

A Gamble

 

Where is Ali Khamenei (Seyyed Ali Hosseini Khamenei, سید علی حسینی خامنه‌ای, Ali Hoseyni Xāmene’i)?

 

Is Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei in danger of assassination?

This past week news headlines have announced:

 

Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in hiding with extra security following Hezbollah leader’s death
and
IDF makes clear that Hezbollah leader’s assassination is not the ‘end’ of Israel’s air campaign

 

Is another assassination coming soon, one aiming at the top of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard? The question is if supreme command and control leader Khamenei is no longer commanding and controlling, what would happen?

Which brings us to yesterday’s social media message from Israel’s prime minister to the Iranians — “The people of Iran should know – Israel stands with you.”

How should the world take this message? How should Iranians take this message?

It can be seen as a preliminary outreach. Then the question becomes one of moving pieces on a deadly and potentially regime changing scale.

Is the next in a series of assassinations intended to bring down the mullahs and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard? Is the next assassination going to be a targeted air strike or death by another means as with the hidden bomb in Iran that killed Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh? Is the prime minister of Israel saying, in effect, to the Iranian people that he has, Israel has, the methods in place, agents in place, Mossad in place, tactics and methods to reach and kill Ali Khamenei?

Is the prime minister referring to the new president of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, and the president’s first speech to the UN on September 24 that his country wants to play a ‘constructive role’ in world affairs —

Pezeshkian: “I aim to lay a strong foundation for my country’s entry into a new era, positioning it to play an effective and constructive role in the evolving global order.”

Is this the time for a gamble, a move for change and hope — or is this a time when Iran’s military will call in its strategic partners, Russia, to whom it has been supplying missiles and drones for war in Ukraine, and China, whose ‘energy deal of the century’ with Iran and new high speed rail and connections are key to China’s cross-continent ‘Belt and Road’ economic power and strategy?

Are the gambles of Netanyahu, who faces worldwide anger and dissent over Israel’s destruction of Gaza and ongoing Palestinian deaths, now going to bring Israel peace — or bring more war and generational hatred and conflict… What of Netanyahu’s message?

 

What if Khamenei dies?

What if Israel and Iran go to war?

 

As one of Strategic Demands’ advisors commented, “We’ll see”.

We agree, we are all about to see the next moves by players across the world.

A nexus of entangling alliances, of 21st century Iran-Russia-China and multiple nations in opposition to Israel and the United States, is a background that reverberates like cannons across Verdun.